This year I had more luck in my draw for Super Bowl squares and drew the (4,0) and the (6,2) squares, the Colts will always be listed as the first number since they are the favorite to win. My model for valuing the squares which is based off of the results of all prior Super Bowls values these squares at $11.79 and $0.92, respectively. The initial purchase price for each square was $5.00.
Thus I am looking at a theoretical $12.71 of value for my $10.00 investment, or a 27.1% theoretical gain; much better than last years draw where my $4.00 investment was valued at $2.19. The only additional change this year is I purchased a 50% share of the (2,0) square. This investment cost me $1.00 and I project the square has an intrinsic value of $4.99. I am now holding a squares that are theoretically worth $17.70 from an initial investment of $11.00, or a 60.9% gain. I think this was a shrewd deal, but it doesn't matter unless I get paid. I am interested in starting a secondary market for those who are interested in hedging or monetizing their investments in Super Bowl squares in the future, but I realize that most people are not nearly as nerdy or as big of degenerate gamblers as I am.Now for the more exciting betting. Last year I made projections on the coin toss, winner, over/under and the National Anthem and was correct in most of my projections. Here are my picks for this year:
Coin Toss: Again, this is the dumbest prop bet that is out there, but last year I nearly had the trifecta on this bet. I projected that Pittsburgh would call tails (correct), that the flip would be heads (correct) and that Arizona would elect to receive (incorrect). Arizona was the first team in the history of the Super Bowl to elect to not receive the ball at the beginning of the game. This year I predict the Saints will call tails, the toss will land tails and the Saints will elect to receive.
Winner: Vegas is pretty good at these things and I am going to have to agree with them that the Colts will win. The favorite has won 70% of all Super Bowls and I don't think this one will be any different. The Colts are favored by 5 to 6 points depending on the sportsbook which is a slightly lower spread than usual, but enough to make me uncomfortable betting on the Saints. I personally am rooting for the Saints as I can't stand to think about the fetus-headed Manning winning another Super Bowl.
Over/Under: This is a tough one this year as there are two high flying offensive teams involved that both have weak defenses. The over/under is currently set at 57 which is well above the average of 43. There have only been 8 of 43 Super Bowls that have had more than 57 points scored and the last one was in 2004. Despite my argument above, I think the game could be a little more sloppy than expected and would take the under on this one.
National Anthem: I think this was the easiest money last year with the over/under set at 123 seconds for Jennifer Hudson. Ms. Hudson then went on to sing a 130 second National Anthem. This year Carrie Underwood is set to perform the National Anthem and the line is set at 101 seconds. Scouring YouTube for her performances at sporting events shows that she is averaging about 99-100 seconds per appearance at a major sporting event. Many people think that she would stretch it out for the biggest venue of all sporting events, but the trend for her is getting shorter and shorter with each appearance since 2005. Looking back historically at white artists which average 97.1 seconds compared to black artists which average 116.2 seconds, women which average 113.9 vs. men at 94.2, it is a toss up at where she will come in. The only trend that gives me more confidence in this bet is the fact that country artists average consistently shorter National Anthem times than any other genre. Therefor, bet the under on the National Anthem. I would guess it will come in at 99 seconds.
Well, good luck to everyone in your betting this year and don't come after me if you lose any money. If you are looking for me I will probably be hiding from my bookie for a while.
